Elections Expert Who’s Called Every Presidential Race Since ’84: Obama Will Win in 2012
Bummer.
However, Lichtman's model is subjective, as one commentator posted:
[He] failed [in his 2006 candidate bid] for Senate (he sought and resoundingly lost the Democratic nomination in Maryland) Lichtman's model is way too subjective to be taken seriously.
What comprises a "serious" contest for the nomination or a "serious" third party candidacy? What constitutes "major changes in national policy"? Would Bush's passage of No Child Left Behind or Medicare Part D make the grade? What are "major" failures or successes? And who, exactly, is the arbiter of charisma?
Lichtman's model is delightful because it is entirely adaptable to his own whims and subjective judgments. And since he picked Gore to win in 2000 (and then quickly mentioned that the model only applies to the popular vote), I think that "perfect record" is somewhat questionable.
Since he's an activist Democrat predicting Obama will win reelection, Lichtman can count on lots of positive media exposure between now and November 6, 2012. But if the polls start looking hopeless for Obama in the final two weeks of the campaign, watch Lichtman's judgments suddenly adjust.
However, Lichtman's model is subjective, as one commentator posted:
[He] failed [in his 2006 candidate bid] for Senate (he sought and resoundingly lost the Democratic nomination in Maryland) Lichtman's model is way too subjective to be taken seriously.
What comprises a "serious" contest for the nomination or a "serious" third party candidacy? What constitutes "major changes in national policy"? Would Bush's passage of No Child Left Behind or Medicare Part D make the grade? What are "major" failures or successes? And who, exactly, is the arbiter of charisma?
Lichtman's model is delightful because it is entirely adaptable to his own whims and subjective judgments. And since he picked Gore to win in 2000 (and then quickly mentioned that the model only applies to the popular vote), I think that "perfect record" is somewhat questionable.
Since he's an activist Democrat predicting Obama will win reelection, Lichtman can count on lots of positive media exposure between now and November 6, 2012. But if the polls start looking hopeless for Obama in the final two weeks of the campaign, watch Lichtman's judgments suddenly adjust.
posted by Northern Exposer at 01:54
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