Calculated Chances for McCain

Without the input and votes of the independents, undecided (although how through 17 months how anyone can be undecided at this point is beyond me) and the silent majority out there, this has to be taken with a grain of salt. But it is interesting none the less:


The formulas below show McCain's chances of winning the election since the beginning of September--using data from intrade.com.

X = 35 (days remaining until election)

y = -0.0587x^2 + 1.9159x + 36.215 (polynomial)
McCain's chances could decline to 31.4 %

y = 46.278e0.0009x (exponential)
McCain's peak would likely not exceed 46.4 %

y = 0.0365x + 46.552 (linear)
McCain's peak would likely not exceed 47.8 %
McCain's chance could also decline to 45.3 %

y = 1.9672 ln(x) + 42.18 (logarithmic)
McCain's chances could peak to 49 .2 %

If you take the average of the 5 methods, McCain's chances stand at 44 % which translate to 236 electoral college. 270 is needed to win.

McCain is not hitting the 50 % margin and is not a good investment at this point.

The data used in these calculations are available for download from intrade.com--the data shows polling trends.